Alberta oil deposits could top famed Saudi reserves

The amount of untapped oil in Alberta is enough to make the Middle East jealous. Just give it 25 years

By Gordon Jaremko

December 01, 2009

Voser was urged to make the project a priority by supporters of diversifying Alberta markets beyond the United States such as former premier Peter Lougheed.

Rival versions of the proposed Alberta window on the sea are sponsored by Enbridge Inc. and Kinder Morgan Canada, with varying sources of international industry support. The future of the oil transportation megaproject is expected to become clearer over the next few months. The next step is a regulatory application, which Enbridge is preparing with $100 million in support from prospective shippers.

Voser appealed to all concerned with energy issues to be patient and recognize that big changes take time. “The energy industry is very different from, say, the consumer electronics industry,” the Shell chief said. “A mobile phone company has 18 months to develop a new mobile phone if it wants to beat the competition. In the energy sector, the scale of investments and new projects is massive, and 18 months feels more like 18 minutes.”

In the industry’s evolution to date, going from invention through field trials to opening the first reliable, full-sized plant using a new technology routinely takes a decade. “Subsequently, after commercial introduction, it takes at least another 25 years for a new energy type to obtain a one per cent share of the global market,” Voser said.

He pointed to the example set by liquefied natural gas. LNG is a hot growth item by industry standards but has still only captured two per cent of world markets for all energy forms since the first export terminal started up in Algeria in 1964.

Shell forecasters predict environmental popular demand for a political “green new deal” could accelerate change to give renewable energy sources, led by wind and solar power and biological fuels, a 30 per cent share of world markets in 2050. But nearly three-quarters of growing overall consumption will still rely on fossil fuels.

“Oil sands are not off the scale environmentally,” Voser said. The Athabasca bitumen mining consortium of Shell, Chevron Canada Ltd. and Marathon Oil Sands LP soon afterwards took a step towards improving the resource’s respectability. With government contributions of $865 million – $745 million from Alberta and $120 million from Ottawa – the corporate trio launched a $1.35-billion carbon capture and storage program called Project Quest at their Scotford synthetic oil upgrader plant northeast of Edmonton near Fort Saskatchewan.

Like new production, environmental cleanups take time. The money will initially pay for years of design and engineering work. Installation of equipment to make a start on disposing of a projected 1.2 million tonnes of emissions a year, and eventually cut the Scotford plant’s carbon waste by 40 per cent, is expected to take until 2015.

Shell has high hopes for climate change treaty negotiations that begin with a United Nations conference in Copenhagen this month. Voser urged the participating governments to make a deal that will provide rewards for cleanup investments, including financial credits for stowing carbon emissions underground that realistically recognize the system’s costs. “Society needs real progress on climate policy frameworks that put a price on emissions and promote CCS and other clean energy technologies,” the Shell chief said.

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