“If you’re a poor nation and all you have is natural resources you’ll tend to extract them at the greatest possible rate in order just to stay afloat.” That was the bottom line to a complex address that Michael Moore delivered to peers gathered amid oil company towers in downtown Calgary for a biennial meeting of the Canadian branch in the 25-country International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences.

Concentrating solely on corporate profits and government royalties sets up an energy-producing jurisdiction to occupy the losing side of an “exploitive” relationship with consumers, Moore warned. He urged adoption of more complete yardsticks of costs of satisfying markets. Measurements should cover the full value of resources by taking into account the life cycle of development and effects on the natural environment and the community, he suggested. “We act as though we’re still living in a cowboy economy” where unlimited raw materials are ready to hand and only have to be picked up, he warned.

Like it or not, that freedom era is about to end for Alberta, former premier Peter Lougheed told the same meeting of international scholars.

Fossil fuels will still be tickets to wealth, Lougheed predicted. “I see $100-a-barrel-plus oil . . . fairly soon.” Natural gas prices will rise again too, although more slowly and not so high, he added.

But at the same time as energy markets recover, Lougheed expects the United States and Canadian governments to take actions that affect Alberta’s ability to make resource fortunes. He predicted that although the U.S. Senate is bound to water down commitments to strong restrictions on carbon emissions in legislation passed by the House of Representatives, Washington will eventually enact a compromise environmental bill that affects fossil fuels.

“The small print will be critical,” Lougheed said. In addition to a practical need to stay in step with the U.S. as the nation’s main trading partner, Canada’s federal government will face emotional public opinion favoring action to curb emissions blamed for climate change regardless of whether Conservatives or Liberals are in power. A national election is coming soon, the environment will be an issue and leaders will have to deal with questions about the pace of energy development especially in the oil sands, Lougheed predicted. “Alberta is going to have to be prepared to amend some of its positions to fit into the Canadian consensus.”

Gord
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Gord Jaremko, Editor, Alberta Oil