“Right about the time that this current crisis goes away, we’re going to get hit by a demographic crisis so the labor market is going to remain tight,” he contends. So far Saskatchewan has dealt with its labor problem by keeping 50- and 60-year-olds working. But unless the boomer generation figures out a way to live forever – and quickly – this is only a stopgap.

The province is trying to boost its labor force by increasing immigration and participation by aboriginals who are projected to make up 50 per cent of the population by 2050. But the efforts are simply not enough.

Howe believes Saskatchewan should concentrate on native recruitment to help solve the labor problem. “By 2016, one in four of Saskatchewan’s young adults (20-29) will be aboriginal,” the U of S economist says. “There are things that must be done in order to move aboriginal people further into the economic mainstream or our province will become inner-city Regina, writ large.”

More worrying for Elliot is the province’s as yet unbroken history of dependence on primary resource exports. “I think the biggest problem that we have is that we’re still not adding any value to stuff we’re doing here. We’re still in the business of shipping ore and uncut trees out of here. Until that changes, we’re going to be in this boom-bust cycle whenever commodity prices go up or down.”

With commodity prices definitely down, Saskatchewan’s bright period of growth has begun to dim. Talk about developing a new eastern branch of the oil sands has died down. Elliot says he does not yet see a bust. But recession usually arrives without advance notice in Saskatchewan, the historian observes.

“When all of your customers are hurting, you know that is going to affect you but it depends on how long our customers stay hurting. The normal thing in Saskatchewan is for a downturn in the U.S. or Canadian economy to affect us six months to a year later. So far we are following that pattern.”

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