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Is Brazil a better match for US oil demand than Alberta?

Brazil steps forward to share the spotlight as a naturally well-endowed candidate to take care of U.S. energy appetites

September 15, 2008
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In these times of anxiety over oil prices and security, Brazil stands out for setting an example of turning an energy crisis into lasting opportunity.

The 1970s oil shocks caught Brazil without supplies or cash to buy any. A pragmatic government responded to geologists’ assertions that reserves existed only offshore by investing in ocean drilling technology. To deal with immediate fuel shortages, Brazil resorted to its natural endowments and history. Plentiful agricultural land and sugar cane were put to use by an alcohol fuel program.

Three decades later, sustained efforts by succeeding governments to be practical about energy are hitting pay dirt.

The country has emerged as the world’s largest producer and exporter of sugar cane ethanol, which has won international acceptance as an environmentally sustainable fuel.

Petrobras, the national oil company, recently announced a string of discoveries in deep waters of the Atlantic of a size no one thought possible. The finds, in previously little-known zones that earth scientists christened the pre-salt cluster, are regarded as sure to increase Brazil’s reserves by billions of barrels.

The resulting combination of fossil and renewable fuels turned out to be a unique feat applauded by conservationists around the world. Brazil provided itself with the most sustainable energy mix on the globe. The country averages 45 per cent usage of renewable sources compared to the world’s 14 per cent.

The accomplishment also turned out to be industrial and commercial, igniting interest in international energy investment circles. Brazil emerged from its original quest for self-sufficiency with proven potential to grow into a role as a future supplier of all types of fuel to the United States.

The U.S.A., the globe’s largest consumer of oil and refined products, imports a whopping 67 per cent of its needs. The Middle East, while dominating popular attention due to a history of using oil supplies as political weapons and conflicts that keep the memory alive, only delivers 16 per cent of U.S. import requirements.

The heavy lifting, a considerable 54 per cent, falls to suppliers in the western hemisphere. Canada, Mexico and Venezuela lead deliveries to the U.S., while Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador have played supporting roles to date.

There are few doubts that Canada will deliver now and in the future. Mexico and Venezuela, on the other hand, are just as certain not to maintain current exports, let alone increase them. Both are notorious among international energy economists for letting aging oil fields run down while cash-strapped governments divert production revenues into social and economic programs rather than invest in new output.

This leaves the energy balance of the U.S., and the entire western hemisphere, squarely in the hands of Canada and Brazil.

Within the international industry, Brazil’s emerging stature as a world-class producer has been apparent since at least 2000, when the country had a high profile at the 16th World Petroleum Congress in Calgary.

The role was thoroughly explored during the 17th Congress, which was held three years later in Rio de Janeiro amid drilling successes and predictions of US$100 billion in investments by 2012 with 85 per cent of the money going into oil and refining.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration describes Brazil as making “great strides” in supply development and as one of the fastest-growing oil producers on the planet.

To outsiders, the rise of Brazil as an energy power still seems like an unexpected turn of events. But a stop almost anywhere in the country dispels doubts.

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