Q&A with a Futurist
AO editor-in-chief Sebastian Gault interviewed EDS futurist Jeff Wacker at this year’s International Green IT conference in Calgary
AO Thomas Friedman consulted with you for The World is Flat. You have also been involved with his upcoming book The Red, White and Green. Will this next book also have reason to become a sensational bestseller?
JW While the title of Thomas Friedman’s upcoming book has changed – I’ve been asked not to disclose it before the book publishes in August – I believe it will rank well with Thom’s previous books. It’s an even-handed look at the environmental issues, but also an analysis of the root causes for them and approaches to remediate them. The release of the book is designed to coincide with the political conventions for both the Republican and Democrats so that the environmental issue can become a factor in the United States’ future.
AO Wikipedia’s definition of a futurist as “someone who speculates about the future” includes virtually everyone. Could you provide a more specific description of your profession?
JW Being a professional futurist has something in common to being a bona fide scientist or engineer these days. Many claim the title, but few practice the discipline necessary to truly earn it. So while we all have an interest in the future – after all, we all expect to live there one day – not all “futurists” truly live up to the standard of a professional futurist. The definition I use to guide my work is that of an individual who tracks a broad variety of trends, then projects those trends forward into potential, possible and probable scenarios with focus on the variation of each trend as well as the crossing of multiple trends.
AO Does the IT sector have a monopoly over the futurism business?
JW Certainly not. There are many futurists who focus on different aspects of the future. Ray Kurzweil, for instance, focuses on technology and health. Alvin Toffler focused on business. The future moves ahead on a broad front with changes in every area advancing simultaneously.
One of the worst mistakes a futurist can make is to project an opportunity only within the current context. To do so will lead one to wrongful conclusions. For example, if an investor were to have projected the viability of the automobile in 1908 in the context of the roads, mechanics and gasoline availability at that time, they would have mistakenly determined the probability of success as near zero. It is only by understanding a broad range of trends that successful scenarios can be built.
AO Technology is a double-edged sword, creating both untold wealth and harrowing dangers. How do we get to have our cake and eat it too?
JW The answer is that a competent futurist will make a significant effort to understand the negative effects of technology introduction as well as project the positive, then include both in the scenario. The “killer application” of the second wave of IT when we moved from centralized to decentralized computing was the spreadsheet. I discuss the virtues of the increased responsiveness brought about by moving some programming from professional staff to department employees, but also point out the problems created by lack of controls, training and the misuse of the tool that ensued.
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